The Shift in the American Migration Landscape

By D. Ariaz

“We moved to a dead-end road,” says Daniel Labarge. A beer is lodged in the cup holder of his tractor as he goes about his Friday-afternoon chores. “Nice, calm, quiet. Then all of a sudden it blew up.” Mr Labarge’s farm in Champlain, New York, is within spitting distance of America’s northern border. A few years ago his unassuming street, Roxham Road, became a destination for migrants crossing north into Canada. Now, he says, the foot traffic is coming from the other direction.


Migration across America’s borders has long been a central issue in national security and policy debates, primarily the southern border. Yet while the country’s attention has been on the Rio Grande, some migrant flows have shifted. Ever more people are trying to get to America via its border with Canada. While the focus has traditionally been on the southern border, recent trends have revealed a significant shift in migration patterns, with the northern border, particularly along the Swanton Sector, emerging as a new focal point for illegal crossings. This change underscores the fluid nature of migration and presents new challenges for managing the world's longest land border.


The Swanton Sector, a 295-mile stretch of borderlands covering parts of eastern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, has become the epicenter of this surge. The area has seen a dramatic increase in migrant encounters, with nearly 19,500 recorded this fiscal year, up from roughly 900 in 2021. This increase, though smaller in scale compared to the southern border, highlights the complexities of managing this vast and diverse border region.


Geography helps explain why migrants are drawn to the Swanton Sector. They can travel south from Montreal, cross the border near Champlain and catch a bus to New York City. Dozens of migrants gather at the Greyhound stop in Plattsburgh, New York, where they huddle in a cramped shelter and await the bus. Soraya Seiden, who lives in town, hands out water and snacks every day. “It gets cold here soon…and daylight diminishes,” she says, “You see young girls, young men with their suitcase out there waiting in the dark.”


Robert Garcia, the agent in charge of the Swanton Sector, reported that more migrants were apprehended in his territory over ten months than in the previous 13 years combined. The majority of these migrants hail from Mexico and India, drawn to this region by its relatively accessible geography and proximity to major urban centers like Montreal and New York City. Smuggling networks, which facilitate these crossings, have capitalized on the northern border's perceived permeability, arranging everything from flights to Toronto or Montreal to transportation to the border and pickup vehicles on the other side. The cost for these services can range from $1,500 to $35,000.


The crossing is not without risks. There are no walls up here, but the borderlands where America and Canada meet are vast and rural. Dense forests surround fields of corn and wheat. The winter cold can be deadly. The frigid bodies of migrants are sometimes found on both sides, as evidenced by the tragic story of Ana Karen Vasquez-Flores, a Mexican migrant who drowned while attempting to cross into the United States via the Great Chazy River. Her death is a stark reminder of the dangers migrants face even in areas perceived as safer alternatives to the southern border.


The surge in northern border crossings has not only strained law enforcement resources but also affected local communities. Residents like Kyle Koss, who lives near the border, have observed an increase in migrants passing through their properties, often leaving behind discarded belongings. While local authorities have not reported a significant rise in crime, some residents have expressed concerns about safety, with a few taking additional precautions, such as carrying firearms.


Despite these concerns, data consistently shows that undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than U.S.-born citizens. A study co-led by Northwestern University economist Elisa Jácome, which analyzed 150 years of U.S. Census data, found that immigrants are 60% less likely to be incarcerated than native-born citizens. This finding challenges the narrative often used to justify stricter immigration controls and highlights the positive contributions immigrants make to American society.


As the Biden administration grapples with these new challenges, it has responded by tightening asylum procedures and increasing deportations at the northern border. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, and the situation continues to evolve.


In navigating these challenges, it is crucial that policymakers base their decisions on facts rather than fear. The surge in northern border crossings is a complex issue that requires a holistic approach to immigration policy — one that acknowledges both the security concerns and the invaluable contributions of immigrants to the United States. Balancing these considerations will be key to effectively managing America’s borders in the years to come.