Two Years of Russia-Ukraine War: Where Does the Conflict Stand?

By: G. Dutra

As the Russo-Ukrainian war reaches its second year this February, issues have mounted for both sides. Hundreds of thousands have died, and front lines in the country’s east have devolved into trench warfare resembling the First World War. An extended war has been hugely costly in terms of human, economic, and political capital for both sides and thus a question arises: what does the battlefield look like today? 
 
The human cost
The current number of casualties due to war since February 2022 is a heavily contested issue, having been politicised by both sides. Both the Ukrainian and Russian ministries of defence have largely inflated the figures of enemy casualties whilst minimizing those of their personnel to boost morale in their respective countries. Amidst the discrepancies from both countries, officials from the United States have estimated that roughly 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 120,000 Russian soldiers have perished since the beginning of the invasion. Casualties from soldiers, however, make up only a small aspect of the human cost of a conflict. Men between the ages of 18 and 60 are not allowed to leave Ukraine without special permission, however, a staggering number of refugees have still left the country - nearly all of whom were women and children. According to the UNHCR, Russia and the European Union initially took in 7.8 million refugees, but today the number of refugees stands at roughly 6 million - 14% of the population. Families have been torn apart and the resulting trauma is expected to endure for generations, with the current war being one of the darkest periods in Ukrainian history since the Second World War.
 
Waning support for Zelensky
Last week the US Senate passed a 95 billion dollar support package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. This package is not, however, expected to make it through the Republican-controlled US House, with roughly half of all republican voters believing that the US has sent too much aid to Ukraine (pew). Funding shortfalls have led to shortages of ammunition along the frontlines, leading the Ukrainian army to ration supplies. Shortages have been cited as one reason for Ukraine’s inability to launch successful counterattacks against Russians in recent months, with the city of Avdiivka, a hard-fought battlefield outside of Donetsk, falling to the Russian army last week. 
Support from Ukraine’s European partners has, however, remained steadfast. Earlier this month the European parliament reached an agreement to send 50 billion euros to fund Ukraine’s government functions, such as schooling and infrastructure repairs, through to 2027. The UK has also independently sent money to Ukraine, with total funding pledges since February of 2022 reaching 12 billion pounds. Despite huge amounts of support from the West and the Ukrainian economy mobilising to pour 37% of the country’s GDP into the military, shortages will continue to plague the armed forces without help from the US.  
 
 What's next?
Ukraine’s prospect for a full victory over Russia looks increasingly bleak as Western intelligence agencies warn that the Russian government is prepared to fight for a decade. Contrarily, estimates for economic damage to infrastructure and businesses have reached 486 billion dollars as of 2024, with an ever-increasing human cost for Ukraine. Recovery would take decades for a country which even before the war was the poorest and most corrupt in Europe, and the prospects for a post-war Ukraine are looking increasingly bleak.