What do Declining Populations Mean for South Korea?

By: G. Dutra

As South Korea’s fertility rate falters, it is first necessary to look at how fertility rates are measured. Fertility rates are calculated by measuring the average number of births per woman in a country. For a country’s population to remain stable, a country’s fertility rate should be at 2.1 births per woman. However, South Korea’s 2023 fertility rate dropped to the lowest level in its recorded history, to 0.72 nationwide. This number means that by the year 2100, South Korea’s population is expected to halve. These drops have come despite 210 billion dollars of government investment in birth programs over the last 16 years. 2023’s showings were so bad that it has been dubbed a national emergency, and only Ukraine, a country at war, has a lower birth rate. The following question must thus be raised: what will a declining population mean for South Korea?

For one, dropping fertility rates is hugely problematic for South Korea’s economy. A declining population will result in fewer people entering the workforce every year, eventually causing the number of retirements to overtake the number of new workers. This will slow economic growth as there are fewer workers for companies to employ, leading to less material being produced. This will also increase elderly poverty rates as the proportion of individuals being paid pensions to those paying into the social benefits system will increase. This means that there will be less money to go around for more people, requiring taxes to increase whilst individual retirees will receive lower pension payments.

Another consequence of such low fertility rates is that of the country’s national security. South Korea’s military is the fifth most powerful in the world according to Global Firepower 2024, a consequence of its aggressive counterpart to the North. Serving in the military is mandatory for men no matter their socioeconomic position - something which was proved by the drafting of all members in the popular Korean K-pop band BTS in December 2023. However, as fewer individuals come of age, the military has been forced to decrease its size, despite very real threats from the North.

Lastly, South Korea’s government could loosen immigration standards to make up for shortfalls in the labour force of the nation. By easing the standards required for individuals to migrate into the country, more immigrants will live in South Korea to bolster the country’s workforce. Historically, European countries have turned to this method to fill job vacancies in times of need, with West Germany being the first to do so in the 1960s with the creation of the ‘Gastarbeiter’ visa. If South Korea took a similar route, social changes would surely occur in one of the most homogenous nations in the world. However, surveys have shown that the majority of South Koreans hold anti-immigrant views, and thus such a method is unlikely to be taken.
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Ultimately, South Korea’s low fertility rates are the consequence of a highly work-driven society in which individuals do not have the time nor the funds to raise children. Without fixing these underlying issues first, it will be difficult to increase birth rates, as seen by the failure of 210 billion dollars in social funding to push more individuals to start families. As a declining population seems increasingly inevitable, the challenges in South Korea’s future mount.